摘要：機械設備在服役期間通常承受隨機循環載荷的作用，隨機載荷的每一次作用相當于在機械系統中造成了一次損傷，當累積損傷量達到了臨界損傷值時，即認為系統失效。若機械設備是由多個零件組成的系統，則在隨機載荷的作用下，各零件的失效具有一定的統計相關性，已經證明，串聯系統的總壽命要低于組成系統的各個零部件的壽命，而并聯系統的總壽命要高于各個零部件的壽命。本文基于概率Miner累積損傷理論，借助零件壽命分布的次序統計量來表示系統的壽命分布，建立了系統概率疲勞壽命預測模型。

　　關鍵詞：隨機循環載荷； 概率Miner理論； 次序統計量； 概率壽命

Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction Model for System Based on the Probabilistic Miner Rule
Lvxiao¹Xie liyang¹
(1. School of Mechanical Engineering and Automation, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China)

　　Abstract: Generally, the mechanical systemissubjected to the random cyclic loads in service,and its damage will cumulateone time when therandom load cycling once.The system failure will occur when cumulative damagereaches the critical damagevalue. If the machinery is a system composed of a plurality of components, a certain statistical dependenceexists in componentfailures,it is certified that the life of series systemis lower than that of component and the life of parallel system is higher than that of component. With the order statistics of life distributions of components to indicate the life distribution of system,a new probabilistic fatigue life prediction model for the system is presented based on the probabilistic Miner rule.

　　Key words: random cyclic load;probabilistic Miner rule; order statistics; probabilistic fatigue life

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