content 內容目錄
0 Introduction 介紹
1 Raw Materials Market Analysis 原材料市場分析
2 Resins 樹脂
3 Pigments 顏料
4 Solvents 溶劑
5 Additives 添加劑
6 Regional Distribution 地區分布
7 Market Trends 市場趨勢
Introduction 介紹
Copyrights reserve to The ChemQuest Group, Inc.
版權歸屬ChemQuest
Coatings raw materials can be grouped into four broad categories of chemical constituents:
Resins, Pigments, Solvents and Additives
涂料原料可分為四大類成分:樹脂、顏料、溶劑和添加劑
The global coatings raw material market is estimated to be valued at approximately $63.5 billion on 34.3 million metric tons of materials.
全球涂料原料市場估值約635億美元,約3,430萬噸。
1. Raw Materials Market Analysis 原材料市場分析
Raw materials used in the manufacturing of paints and coatings represent a relatively small (~5%) but extremely important component of the $4.5 trillion global chemicals industry. All of the world’s leading chemical producers are active in the coatings market, and many coatings raw materials are used in other industries as well, including plastics; synthetic lubricants; adhesives; sealants; household, industrial and institutional cleaners (HI&I); personal care products; paper; water treatment and many others. The basic chemical components that are used to produce coatings chemical constituents can also be used to produce a wide array of other chemical compounds. This can be a problem at times, since this diversity of uses can create competitive situations for raw materials and their pre-cursors that are typically used in coatings, particularly during periods of tight supply.
涂料原材料在全球4.5萬億美元的化學工業中,所占的份額相對較小(約5%),但極為重要。世界上所有領先的化學生產商都活躍在涂料市場上,許多涂料原料也用于其他行業,包括塑料、合成潤滑劑、膠粘劑、家用密封膠、工業和公共場所清潔劑、個人護理產品、紙、水處理等。用于生產涂料的基本化學成分也可以用于生產各種其他化合物,有時這可能是一個問題,因為這種多樣性用途會給涂料原材料及其上游市場帶來競爭,特別是在供應緊張期間。
Resins (“binders”), pigments, and fillers represent over 75% of the global coatings raw materials market. Figure 1 shows the estimated distribution of coatings raw materials volume by type.
樹脂、顏料和填充劑占全球涂料原料市場的75%以上。圖1顯示了按類型估算的涂料原料產量分布。
As might be readily anticipated, the distribution of the types of raw materials, based upon value, is somewhat different than distribution based on volume. Figure 2 shows the estimated distribution of coatings’ raw materials value by type.
很容易預料,基于產值的原材料類型分布與基于產量的分布有所不同。圖2顯示了按涂料原材料產值的類型分布。
2. Resins 樹脂
Total global sales of resins for use in coatings systems are estimated to be $31 billion on roughly 15.2 million metric tons.
涂料用樹脂全球總銷售額約為310億美元,約合1,520萬噸。
Globally, acrylic resins are the most commonly used binder in paint and coatings systems. This is particularly true for decorative paints, and includes all acrylics, both pure and modified, such as styrene-acrylics and vinyl-acrylics. It is estimated that acrylic systems, both solventborne and waterborne, comprise approximately 27% of total coatings binder demand. It should be no surprise then, that acrylic resins tend to be the most susceptible to periodic disruptions in supply, accompanied by price fluctuations. In 2017, for example, shortages of methyl methacrylate (MMA), due to a variety of causes, including a shortage of acetone and two major U.S. suppliers of MMA being down (for different reasons) at the same time, led to nearly monthly increases, with MMA climbing roughly $0.50/lb, from “mid-$0.80s/lb” in February 2017 to “mid-$1.30s”/lb in January 2018. Prices on both the spot market and the black market during 2017 were reported to be “sky high.” While supplies are somewhat more stable going into 2018, price increases were announced for both January and February, and there are still likely to be additional increases.
在全球范圍內,丙烯酸樹脂是涂料體系中最常用的化學成分,尤其是裝飾涂料,包括所有純的和改性的丙烯酸,例如苯乙烯-丙烯酸和乙烯基-丙烯酸。據估計,丙烯酸體系,包括溶劑型和水性的,約占涂料用樹脂總量的27%。不足為奇的是,丙烯酸樹脂往往最容易受到周期性供應中斷以及價格波動的影響。例如,在2017年,由于多種原因造成的甲基丙烯酸甲酯(MMA)短缺,包括丙酮短缺以及美國的兩個主要MMA供應商同時下降(由于不同的原因),導致幾乎每月的增長,其中MMA上漲了約0.50美元/磅,從2017年2月的“ 0.80美元/磅的中間價”升至2018年1月的“ 1.30美元/磅的中間價”。據報道,2017年現貨市場和黑市的價格均為“高空”。盡管進入2018年的供應較為穩定,但已宣布1月和2月價格上調,并且仍有可能進一步上漲。
On a global basis, alkyds are used to some degree in virtually every end-use coatings segment, and represent the second most common type of resin system used in coatings formulations. Alkyds comprise roughly 20% of resin demand in the global coatings market (≤10% in the United States). Although alkyd resins have been steadily declining in use, particularly in North America and EU, as VOC limits continue to drop, and the market has been moving to other resin types for water-based and higher-solids formulations, newer water-based alkyd systems are being introduced into the market, at least in part due to the increasing interest in resins made with higher renewable resource content.
在全球范圍內,幾乎每個終端涂料市場都使用了醇酸樹脂,它代表了涂料配方中第二種最常見的樹脂體系。醇酸樹脂約占全球涂料市場樹脂需求的20%(美國≤10%)。盡管醇酸樹脂的使用量一直在穩步下降,尤其是在北美和歐盟,但由于VOC限量不斷下降,并且市場已經轉向水性和高固含等其他樹脂類型,之所以將新型的水性醇酸樹脂系統引入市場,至少部分是由于人們對具有更高可再生資源價值的樹脂越來越感興趣。
Polyurethane coatings, either 1K, 2K (or occasionally 3K) are widely used in the automotive OEM, other transportation, automotive refinish, wood, industrial finishes, decorative coatings and even severe-service marine and high-performance industrial segments. Urethane resins currently comprise roughly 21% of the global demand for resins in coatings. Usage of polyurethane resins has been growing over the past several years due to their performance properties and their ability to be used in lower VOC formulations. An important, and growing, sub-segment of polyurethanes in the United States is 2K polyureas. To comply with increasingly stringent VOC requirements, polyurethane waterborne dispersions (PUDs) have been developed and used to formulate single-component coatings with improved abrasion resistance compared to waterborne acrylics. They can also be combined with other waterborne resins to meet cost targets and performance needs.
1K,2K(或有時3K)聚氨酯涂料廣泛用于汽車OEM、其他交通運輸、汽車修補漆、木家具、工業飾面、裝飾涂料,甚至是要求苛刻的船舶和高性能工業領域。當前,聚氨酯樹脂約占全球涂料樹脂總量的21%。聚氨酯樹脂在過去的幾年中一直在增長,這是由于它們的性能和低VOC配方適用性。在美國,正在增長的一個重要聚氨酯細分市場是2K聚脲。為了滿足日益嚴格的VOC要求,已開發了聚氨酯水性分散體(PUD),用于配制單組分涂料,與水性丙烯酸相比,其耐磨性得到改善。它們也可以與其他水性樹脂結合使用,以滿足成本和性能需求。
Approximately 16% of total demand for binders used in coatings is supplied by epoxy resins. Various resins in the epoxy family are widely used in electrodeposition (ED) coatings and in industrial coatings, particularly in the transportation, industrial maintenance and marine markets. Epoxy resins are also widely used in powder coatings. In recent years, high solids and ultra-high solids formulas using liquid epoxy resin dominate and continue to grow. Liquid epoxy resin is also used for 100% solids epoxy formulas applied as concrete surfacers, tank linings, and for other select applications, often augmented with phenoxy and novolac resins to enhance certain performance features. While the performance of waterborne epoxy resin technology has improved, even accounting for higher consumption due to its improved performance, it has only attained a small technology share, albeit with major usage in metal can coatings. These are, however, coming under increasingly close scrutiny in the United States, where BPA toxicity concerns continue.
約16%的涂料樹脂原材料為環氧樹脂。環氧族中的各種樹脂廣泛用于電沉積(ED)涂料和工業涂料中,特別是在交通運輸、工業維護和海運市場中。環氧樹脂也廣泛用于粉末涂料中。近年來,使用液態環氧樹脂的高固含量和超高固含量配方占主導地位,并繼續增長。液態環氧樹脂還用于100%固體含量的環氧配方,用作混凝土面漆、罐壁以及其他某些應用場合,通常會添加苯氧基和線型酚醛樹脂,以增強某些性能。雖然水性環氧樹脂性能在提高,其能耗也在提高,因此市場份額仍較小,主要用于金屬罐涂料。然而,在美國,對BPA毒性的擔憂仍在不斷受到嚴格審查。
Additional binders that are used as coatings raw materials include amino, polyester (with low-bake versions as the growth area), cellulosic, silicone/polysiloxane, silicate and vinyl resins. Fluoropolymers are another interesting type, with waterborne versions now being offered for high-end architectural exteriors and other applications. Also included in this sub-segment are hydrocarbon resins and natural resins such as rosins and shellacs. While technically not resins, linseed oil, tung oil and similar products are also included since they act as film formers. This sub-segment comprises approximately 16% of total resin demand in the global coatings markets. Another small but growing resin chemistry is that of radiation cure, with the current greatest volume used in wood and plastic coatings—where sometimes even dual WB/UV cure technology is used. See Figure 3 for a breakdown of the major resin types.
其他涂料原料還包括氨基、聚酯(低烘烤型)、纖維素、有機硅/聚硅氧烷、硅酸鹽和乙烯基樹脂。含氟聚合物是另一種有趣的類型,水性體系已可用于高端建筑外墻和其他應用。該類別中還包括烴樹脂和天然樹脂,例如松香和蟲膠。盡管從技術上講不是樹脂,但由于它們是成膜劑,此外還包括了亞麻子油、桐油和這類類似產品。這部分約占全球涂料市場樹脂總需求的16%。另一個很小但正在發展的樹脂體系是輻射固化,目前在木材和塑料涂料中的使用量最大,有時甚至使用雙WB / UV固化技術。有關主要樹脂類型的細分,請參見圖3。
2. Pigments 顏料
The value and volume of pigments, both primary and secondary, for use in coatings formulations were estimated to be $16.5 billion on 11.0 million metric tons of product. On a volume basis, fillers and extenders are the largest sub-set of the pigments category and represent roughly 56% of all demand for pigments in the coatings market. Compounds that comprise this sub-segment include clay, calcium carbonate, talc, silica and other inorganic materials.
用于涂料配方的顏料的產值估計為165億美元(基于1,100萬噸產量)。以產量計,填充劑和增量劑是顏料類別中最大的細分產品,占涂料市場所有顏料需求量的56%。生成該細分產品的化合物包括粘土、碳酸鈣、滑石、二氧化硅和其他無機材料。
The second largest sub-set of the pigments category is titanium dioxide (TiO2), which is the single highest-volume pigment used in coatings. Its largest use is in decorative coatings, but it is widely used in a variety of industrial OEM coatings and industrial maintenance/protective coatings, as well. Titanium dioxide represents approximately 31% of all pigments used as coatings raw materials, and this is likely to be somewhat problematic in 2018, with Q1 lead-times of 60–90 days, and scattered instances of allocation as well. The global economic climate currently favors all market segments that use TiO2, most notably the building and construction segment. This will, therefore, be a year of continued price increases, which could easily take TiO2 as high as $3100/mt, albeit still significantly short of its 2011–2012 historic high price of ~$4500/mt. Increases in Chinese chloride-process TiO2 production are essentially being offset by continued closure of sulfate-process plants, and Huntsman’s plant in Finland is not scheduled to be back to full production until the end of 2018. If the acquisition of Cristal by Tronox is finalized (the U.S. Government filed a complaint aimed at stopping the deal on December 5, 2017), it is unlikely to unleash any additional pigment into the market during 2018, although might be reasonably be expected to add an additional 100Kmt to global output in subsequent years.
顏料中的第二大細分是二氧化鈦(TiO2),它是涂料中使用的最大量的單一顏料。它最大的用途是用于裝飾涂料,但也廣泛用于各種工業OEM涂料和工業維護/防護涂料。二氧化鈦約占用作涂料原料的所有顏料的31%。這在2018年可能會有些變化。第一季度的交貨期為60-90天,分配情況也很分散。當前,全球經濟氣候有利于所有使用TiO2的市場領域,尤其是建筑和建筑領域。因此,今年價格將持續上漲,盡管二氧化鈦的價格仍遠低于其2011-2012年的歷史高價(4500美元/噸),但很容易將其價格推高至3100美元/噸。中國氯化物法生產的TiO2產量的增加基本上被硫酸鹽法生產廠的繼續關閉所抵消,芬蘭的Huntsman工廠計劃在2018年底之前恢復全部生產。如果Tronox對Cristal的收購最終敲定(美國政府于2017年12月5日提出了旨在停止該交易的投訴),盡管可以合理地預期在隨后的幾年中為全球產量增加100噸,但不太可能在2018年向市場釋放任何其他顏料。
For certain end-use applications such as decorative, automotive OEM and automotive refinish, color is a primary driver of product selection. Hence, color pigments play a vitally important role in the coatings industry. Despite the importance of these materials, color pigments represent only a small component of pigment demand. Included in this segment are both inorganic and organic pigments. Inorganic color pigments such as iron oxide are the most frequently used and represent over 80% of the volume of color pigments. Organic color pigments are among the highest-priced raw materials and, thus, despite their relatively low volume, represent a significant portion of the market value. Organic color pigments are likely to increase 3–4% in 2018, as a result of competition for the basic chemicals from which they are built, and that largely come out of the AP region—production of which can be affected at almost any time as the Chinese government becomes increasingly proactive about shutting down chemical processes in an effort to improve air quality. Complex inorganic color pigments (often referred to as CICPs or ceramic pigments) are growing in importance because they meet the higher performance demands of chemical inertness and heat stability, along with lightfastness and excellent weathering properties. Moreover, with only a few exceptions (such as perylene black), CICPs comprise the majority of IR-reflective pigments that now enable formulation of various colors with energy efficiency properties. Color pigments represent >6% of the volume of all pigments used in coatings.
對于一些終端應用,例如裝飾、汽車OEM和汽車修補漆,顏色是產品選擇的主要驅動力。因此,彩色顏料在涂料行業中也起著至關重要的作用。盡管彩色顏料很重要,但彩色顏料僅占顏料需求的一小部分,該部分包括無機和有機顏料。無機彩色顏料(例如氧化鐵)是最常用的顏料,占彩色顏料產量的80%以上。有機彩色顏料是價格最高的原料之一,因此,盡管它們的產量相對較低,但產值較大。有機顏料在2018年市場份額可能會增長3-4%,主要在AP區域,因為中國政府對關閉化學工廠越來越積極,生產隨時受到政府的影響。復雜的無機彩色顏料(通常稱為CICP或陶瓷顏料)正變得越來越重要,因為它們滿足了化學穩定性、熱穩定性、耐光性、耐候性等高性能要求。此外,除了少數例外(例如苯黑),CICP包含大多數紅外反射顏料,這些顏料配方賦予節能屬性。彩色顏料占涂料中所有顏料產量的6%以上。
In addition to the pigments listed above, there is a wide array of other specialty pigments, such as anticorrosive pigments, metallic pigments, pearlescent pigments, carbon black and zinc oxide. While some of these pigments play an important role in coatings volume, none individually represents a significant volume. These other pigments represent roughly >6% of the total pigment demand. See Figure 4 for a breakdown of the major pigment groups.
除了上述顏料外,還有許多其他特種顏料,例如防腐顏料、金屬顏料、珠光顏料、炭黑和氧化鋅。盡管一些顏料在涂料中起著重要的作用,但沒有一個顏料的產量具有代表性。這部分其他類顏料約占總顏料需求的6%以上。有關主要顏料的分類,請參見圖4。
4. Solvents 溶劑
Solvents are the key contributors to the volatile organic content of paints and coatings emitted into the atmosphere and, as a result, are regulated by various local, regional, state and country regulatory agencies around the world.
溶劑是釋放到大氣中的涂料中揮發性有機物的主要起因,因此,它受到全球各地地方、地區、州和國家/地區監管機構的監管。
Global revenues for solvents used in coatings formulations in 2017 were approximately $8 billion on 6.5 million metric tons. Solvents account for 20% of total coating raw materials volume.
2017年涂料配方中使用的溶劑的全球收入約為650億噸,約為80億美元,溶劑占涂料原材料總量的20%。
Oxygenated solvents comprise over 60% of demand within coatings formulations, and include chemical components such as alcohols, ketones, esters, glycols and glycol ethers. Hydrocarbon solvents are either aliphatic or aromatic and comprise less than 40% of total usage within coatings formulations. As a result of the continuing shift in paint and coating formulations from solvent-based to water-based technologies, ultra-high solids and 100% solids, overall usage of solvents is declining as a percentage of the total coatings raw materials usage. While solvent usage as a percentage of total raw materials continues to decline, however, many end-use segments that use solvent-based coatings continue to grow. As a result, total solvent usage has been relatively flat over the past decade or so, and this trend is expected to extend into the foreseeable future. Similarly, within the solvents family, shifts are ongoing as formulators seek to find less toxic and more compliant, environmentally friendly solvents. Unfortunately, VOC regulations—and the concept of “what is exempt and what is not”—differ around the globe. For example, 2,2,4-trimethyl-1,3-pentanediol monoisobutyrate (“Texanol™”), historically the most effective coalescing agent for latex paints, is listed as non-exempt by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, but in the EU it is listed as exempt. This can make formulating “global coatings formulations” anywhere from tricky to impossible, depending upon the coating application, and performance requirements.
含氧溶劑占涂料配方的60%以上,其中包括化學成分例如醇、酮、酯、乙二醇和乙二醇醚。烴溶劑是脂族或芳族溶劑,占涂料配方總量的不到40%。由于涂料配方從溶劑型技術到水性、高固含和100%固含技術的持續轉變,溶劑的使用總量在涂料原料中所占的百分比正在下降。盡管溶劑用量占原材料總量的百分比持續下降,但是,許多使用溶劑型涂料的終端市場仍在增長。結果,在過去的十年左右的時間內,溶劑的總用量一直相對平穩,這種趨勢預計將延伸到可預見的未來。同樣,隨著配方技術人員的努力,溶劑體系也在向毒性更小、更合規、對環境友好的溶劑轉變。不幸的是,VOC法規以及豁免的要求在全球范圍內有所不同。例如,2,2,4-三甲基-1,3-戊二醇單異丁酸酯歷來是乳膠漆最有效的聚結劑,但被美國環境保護署列為非豁免產品,但歐盟將其列為豁免產品。根據涂料應用和性能要求,這使任何地方想研發出“全球涂料配方”,從“棘手”變為“不可能”。
5. Additives 添加劑
Additives comprise a broad category that covers a wide array of chemicals used as raw materials for coatings. Recent innovations include multi-functional additives to simplify the number of formula ingredients and also include those that help to achieve low- to zero-VOC formulations. Total revenue for additives used in coatings is estimated to be $8.4 billion on approximately 1.25 million metric tons.
添加劑涵蓋了廣泛的類別,涵蓋了用作涂料原料的多種化學物質。最近的創新包括多功能添加劑用于簡化配方成分的數量,或可助于實現低至零VOC配方。涂料添加劑的總產值估計為84億美元(約125萬噸)。
Rheology modifiers are the largest sub-segment, representing over 30% of demand, and are used to control viscosity and to affect flow and leveling. Plasticizers are incorporated into formulations to improve the flexibility of the film, and may also be used at times for their coalescent properties. Biocides are added to formulations to prevent the growth of bacteria and other microorganisms while the coating is being stored, and also as a dry film preservative. Biocides, including special chemical components that are used to minimize marine fouling, comprise approximately 22% of total additives used in coatings. Surfactants represent approximately 19% of additive demand on a volume basis, with foam control additives at 15%.
流變改性劑是最大的細分市場,占需求的30%以上,用于控制粘度并影響流動性和流平性。增塑劑,用以改善薄膜的柔韌性,并且由于其聚結性能,有時也可以使用。殺菌劑,可以防止涂層時細菌和其他微生物的生長,并作為干膜防腐劑。殺菌劑,包括用于最大程度減少海洋污染的特殊化學成分,約占涂料添加劑總量的22%。表面活性劑約占添加劑總量的19%,而泡沫控制劑占15%。
The list of other additives is quite long. While none represents a significant component of coatings raw materials individually, “Other Additives” collectively comprise a significant portion of all additives and include adhesion promoters, antifoaming agents, anti-skinning agents, corrosion inhibitors, driers, flatting aids, flood control agents, sag control agents, slip aids and UV absorbers, to name a few. See Figure 5 for a breakdown of the major functional classes of additives.
其他添加劑還有很多。盡管沒有任何一種,可以單獨代表涂料原料的重要組成部分,但“其他添加劑”也構成了所有添加劑的重要組成部分,包括增粘劑、消泡劑、防結皮劑、腐蝕抑制劑、干燥劑、平整助劑、防洪劑、流掛控制劑、助滑劑和紫外線吸收劑等。添加劑的主要類別細分,請參見圖5。
6. Regional Distribution 地區分布
Globally, regional distribution of coatings raw materials generally follows overall production of coatings. Figure 6 depicts total global demand for coatings by region.
在全球范圍內,涂料原材料的區域分布與涂料生產分布一致。圖6描繪了按區域劃分的全球涂料需求。
Competitive Landscape 競爭格局
The competitive landscape is quite complicated. In general, there are three types of competitors that operate in this market:
競爭格局十分復雜。通常,在此市場中運營的競爭對手共有三種:
The first type of competitor is large, multinational chemical companies serving many industries that compete across coatings raw material categories. Examples include:
第一類競爭對手是大型跨國化學公司,為許多行業提供服務,也在涂料原料類別之間競爭。例如包括:
o BASF
o Celanese
o Allnex
o DowDuPont
o Eastman Chemical
o Evonik
o Huntsman
o Lanxess
o Momentive
o W.R. Grace, et al.
Large, multinational chemical companies play a significant role in the coatings raw material market and command a considerable share of the raw material demand. The scale, degree of integration and broad product portfolios of these competitors are perceived as key advantages. Merger and acquisition activity among the large, multinational chemical companies has had a significant impact on the coatings raw materials market, and acquisitions are forecast to continue. Private equity firms continue to show an interest in acquiring raw materials suppliers.
大型跨國化工公司在涂料原料市場中發揮著重要作用,并在原料需求中占有相當大的份額。這些競爭對手的規模、整合程度和廣泛的產品組合被視為關鍵優勢。大型跨國化工公司之間的并購活動對涂料原料市場產生了重大影響,并且預計收購將繼續。私募股權公司繼續表現出對收購原材料供應商的興趣。
The second type consists of multinational product specialists that focus on a limited product offering. These companies tend to specialize in a specific product or chemistry niche(s), and are frequently innovation drivers in the market. Competitors of this type vary widely in size, based upon geographic scope, product breadth and market focus. Examples include:
第二類由專注于有限產品供應的跨國產品專家組成。這些公司往往專注于特定產品或化學領域,并且經常是市場中的創新驅動力。根據地理范圍、產品范圍和市場重點,此類競爭對手的規模差異很大。例如包括:
o Cathay (pigments)
o Heubach (pigments)
o Nubiola (pigments)
o Alberdingk Boley (W/B resins)
o Reichhold (resins)
o Worlee-Chemie (resins)
o ALTANA (BYK—additives)
o Troy Corporation (additives)
o Michelman (additives)
As is the case with multinational chemical companies, mergers and acquisitions are anticipated to continue, impacting the specialist competitors as they are acquired by either larger chemical companies to complement their portfolio, or by other specialists to gain scope and share.
與跨國化工公司一樣,并購預計也將繼續,這將對專業競爭對手產生影響,因為大型化工公司通過收購它們來補充自己的產品組合,或者被其他專家收購以擴大范圍和份額。
The final type of competitor is the local/regional suppliers. These generally focus on a limited product offering. Examples among the numerous local/regional suppliers:
最終一類是本地供應商。這些通常集中在有限的產品上。例如包括:
o Optimal Chemicals
o Organik Kimya
o Silberline Synthopol
o Specialty Resins
o OPC Polymers
o Orion Engineered Carbons
o Many, many others
While none of the local and regional suppliers have significant share on their own, collectively they are an important source of coatings raw materials. Competitors in this group offer an assortment of value propositions tailored to their customer mix. In some cases, due to lower overheads, local/regional suppliers are able to provide lower cost alternatives to the major suppliers. In other cases, they are able to provide unique products or services that allow them to effectively compete. Significant consolidation is anticipated among this group.
本地供應商所占市場份額都不大,但總體而言,它們也是涂料原料的重要來源。本地企業可為其客戶量身定制產品。在某些情況下,由于較低的間接費用,本地供應商能夠以更低成本代替國際供應商的產品。他們因獨特產品或服務優勢而有力競爭。預計本地供應商將進行重大合并。
7. Market Trends 市場趨勢
Demand for coatings raw materials is directly linked to coatings demand. Over the coming five years, demand for coatings is anticipated to grow at a rate of 4–5% annually. This would result in a 2022 demand for raw materials of approximately 42 million metric tons. Asia Pacific is forecast to experience the greatest volume growth (5–6%) to 2022. Europe is likewise forecast to experience moderate growth of perhaps 3–4%. North America is forecast to post somewhat more robust growth of 4–5%, but the exact mix of raw materials consumed within each region will depend on specific end-use market growth.
涂料原料需求與涂料需求直接相關。在未來五年中,涂料需求預計將以每年4–5%的速度增長。到2022年,大約4200萬噸的原材料需求。預計到2022年,亞太地區的銷量將實現最大增長(5-6%)。歐洲也將有望實現3-4%的適度增長。預計北美地區會出現4-5%的強勁增長,但是每個地區的原材料需求將取決于該地區終端市場的增長。
Economic Influences 經濟影響
Significant numbers of raw materials used in coatings formulations are either derived directly from oil for their chemical composition, or indirectly as a result of energy derived from oil for their mining and/or processing. The price of oil can be highly volatile and many factors can impact this forecast, driving the price/barrel either up or down. As a result, oil prices have a significant impact on the price of coatings raw materials. ChemQuest estimates that there is a “pass-through factor” of roughly 50%—i.e., if the price of oil doubles, raw material prices will increase by 50%. A realistic worst-case scenario might see prices of crude oil 50% higher than the forecast, which would increase raw materials for paints and coatings roughly 25%. Over the coming five years, the price of oil is forecast to remain relatively stable, within the range of $60–$70/barrel according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The implication for raw material suppliers and coatings formulators is that the price of the base materials that comprise coatings will likely rise at a rate similar to the rate of inflation to 2022.
涂料配方中使用的大量原材料要么是直接從石油中提取化學成分,要么是間接地從石油中提取能源用于開采和/或加工。石油價格波動頻繁,受到許多因素影響而無法預測,每桶石油價格或上漲或下跌。因此,涂料原料的價格也受到重大影響。ChemQuest估計如果油價翻倍,原材料價格將上漲50%。現實中最壞的情況可能是原油價格比預期高出50%,這將使涂料的原材料價格增長約25%。根據美國能源情報署(EIA)的預測,在未來五年中,石油價格將保持相對穩定,在每桶60-70美元之間。對于原材料供應商和涂料配方設計師而言,這意味著涂料基礎原料的價格可能會以類似于2022通貨膨脹率的速度上漲。
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